CARACAS (IPS/GIN) - The vigorous comeback of the opposition in Venezuela's newly elected parliament strengthens pluralism in this oil-rich country, although it may presage a new political crisis in the medium term, according to analysts.
With almost 99 percent of the ballots counted, the electoral branch announced that the governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and its small ally, the Communist Party, won 98 of the 165 seats in parliament, compared to 63 for the opposition Democratic Unity Coalition.
Two seats were taken by Fatherland for All, a leftwing party that broke away from President Hugo Chávez earlier this year, and two further seats were still too close to call after Sept. 26 elections.
In terms of actual vote counts, however, 5.4 million ballots were cast for opposition politicians (48 percent of those counted so far) compared to 5.2 million (46.4 percent) for the PSUV and its ally. The Fatherland party got 330,260 votes and the rest went to small parties, mostly opposed to Mr. Chávez, or were blank or spoiled votes.
The authorities said voter turnout was 66.45 percent of the 17.6 million registered voters in this country of 28.8 million people.
Opposition Democratic Unity Coalition coordinator Ramón Aveledo said, “The Venezuelan people have spoken.” Combining all the votes not cast for the governing party, he added: “The opposition comprises 52 percent of the electorate, and the present parliament (which ends its term of office in January) no longer represents Venezuela: it should not, and morally and politically cannot, take legislative decisions.”
In reply, Aristóbulo Istúriz, a President Chavas party lawmaker-elect and head of the party's electoral campaign, said: “We are going to legislate right up to the very last day, so be prepared. We did not reach our target of two-thirds (of the seats) but we won a resounding victory.”
President Chávez wrote in his Twitter account that the elections were “another victory for the people,” and said “we must keep on strengthening the revolution.”
Political analyst Eduardo Semtei said Chávez would “keep his foot on the accelerator” and drive ahead with his initiatives for changing Venezuelan politics, economy and society, which will lead him into fresh conflicts with the opposition.
Sociologist and professor of political sciences Carlos Raúl Hernández told IPS “a political crisis is looming, possibly within the next few months, because the part of society that opposes Chávez's project will be emboldened by this electoral success, and will react when measures are taken against it.”
According to Mr. Hernández, “at the risk of falling into clichés, what has happened in Venezuela can be termed historic, because the country is bringing to a halt and wrecking—at the ballot box—the project to exhume and renew communist-style socialism, after its demise as a Western cultural phenomenon in the last century.”
For the consumption of the public and of international opinion, the opposition will try to maintain its campaign slogan, “we are the majority,” while the government and its allies will take their stand on legal formality and the control the president's followers exercise over nearly all the levers of political and economic power, nationally and regionally.
In parliament, the government will not have the two-thirds majority that Mr. Chávez had aimed for as his party's necessary electoral goal. A two-thirds majority is required to pass certain laws, as well as to reconfigure the political, economic, social and institutional architecture of the country.
A crisis may be brewing, driven by deteriorating social and economic indicators, which are already regarded as causing or contributing to the electoral decline of Mr. Chávez and his government, observers say. High inflation, long-term unemployment and under-employment, high crime rates, and lack of housing and of services like electricity are some of the problems they highlight
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